40k - Go First & Win

 There has been a lot of talk in the first days of 9th that "Go First & Win". Analysis showed that for the early GT-sized events (30+ participants) that the win rate going first was 58%.

I decided to collect the data for The Long War to see if that level of win bias was evident.

The Long War was an RTT here in Wellington with 18 participants. That gave 27 games over the day.

Here are the results:

First Round: Battlelines (22)  

Went First & Won (WFW): 6
Went Second & Won (WSW): 3

Second Round: Overrun (31)

WFW: 3
WSW: 6

Third Round: Scorched Earth (12)

WFW: 5

WSW: 4

So overall for this event, statistically there was no evident bias in whether you went first or second.

I decided to isolate the outcomes with a winning record - the nine players who won 2 or more games.

Went First & Won: 9
Went First & Lost: 3

Went Second & Won: 11

Went Second & Lost: 4

Again, statistically - no difference.

So why do I think there is variation from the early results overseas?

• Small sample size
• Local meta factors (possibly)
• Mission choice (possibly)
• Terrain density

After reading the Goonhammer articles and terrain density (or lack thereof) being a possible cause, I ensured that the tables all had the number of items of terrain we played with in 8th, on the smaller 60"x 44" area for TLW. This meant that the tables had more cover (relatively) than we were used too. Coupled with the new terrain rules people could protect themselves from a first turn strike. Yes, you could flood the board going first but you couldn't necessarily flood the board AND alpha strike your opponent.

On this basis I think those that tried to flood the board had to weigh up the cost of a relatively unblooded opponent hitting back....there was a potential cost.

Keen to keep tracking the data. 

40k - First "New Warhammer" RTT - The Long War IV

 This weekend I have my first "New Warhammer" tournament. It is a three round 2000 point event using the Chapter Approved Grand Tournament 2020 missions.

I've had exactly one game of the new edition going into the event so am looking to get a few more games under my belt. Earlier in the week I published the participants' lists.

My own list is a single Battalion of Harlequins, as follows:

 Masque Form: The Soaring Spite: Serpent's Blood 

 

+ Stratagems + 

 

Enigmas of the Black Library (2 Relics) [-3CP] 

 

+ HQ + 

 

Shadowseer [6 PL, 115pts, -1CP]: Shield From Harm, Shuriken Pistol, Stratagem: Pivotal Role, The Shadowstone, Twilight Pathways, Veil of Illusion, Webway Dance 

 

Shadowseer [6 PL, 115pts]: Shards of Light, Shield From Harm, Shuriken Pistol, Twilight Pathways 

 

Troupe Master [4 PL, 70pts]: Choreographer of War, Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Blade, Luck of the Laughing God, The Twilight Fang, Warlord 

 

+ Troops + 

 

Troupe [5 PL, 119pts] 

4x Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Caress 

. Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Blade 

 

Troupe [5 PL, 90pts] 

4x Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Blade 

. Player: Harlequin's Blade, Shuriken Pistol 

 

Troupe [5 PL, 90pts] 

4x Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Blade 

. Player: Harlequin's Blade, Shuriken Pistol 

 

Troupe [5 PL, 119pts] 

4x Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Caress 

. Player: Fusion Pistol, Harlequin's Blade 

 

+ Elites + 

 

Death Jester [3 PL, 50pts]: Humbling Cruelty 

 

Solitaire [5 PL, 102pts]: Blitz, Cegorach's Rose, Harlequin's Caress, Harlequin's Kiss 

 

+ Fast Attack + 

 

Skyweavers [15 PL, 270pts] 

4x Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Zephyrglaive 

. Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Star Bolas 

 

Skyweavers [15 PL, 270pts] 

4x Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Zephyrglaive 

. Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Star Bolas 

 

Skyweavers [15 PL, 270pts] 

4x Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Zephyrglaive 

. Skyweaver: Haywire Cannon, Star Bolas 

 

+ Dedicated Transport + 

 

Starweaver [4 PL, 80pts]: 2x Shuriken Cannon 

 

Starweaver [4 PL, 80pts]: 2x Shuriken Cannon 

 

Starweaver [4 PL, 80pts]: 2x Shuriken Cannon 

 

Starweaver [4 PL, 80pts]: 2x Shuriken Cannon 

So pure Clowns, single Masque. As a 40k player who greatly prefers mono lists over soup, it is great to be rewarded for sticking to that line. I appreciate that this list may be able to be stronger by subbing in other Aeldari units but it's now how I want to play.

I suspect players will pick "Assassinate" against me, given the high number of T3 characters while the ones I choose have been narrowed down to 4-5.

You can follow along Saturday NZ time on  Down Under Pairings