Sunday, August 30, 2020

40k - Go First & Win

 There has been a lot of talk in the first days of 9th that "Go First & Win". Analysis showed that for the early GT-sized events (30+ participants) that the win rate going first was 58%.

I decided to collect the data for The Long War to see if that level of win bias was evident.

The Long War was an RTT here in Wellington with 18 participants. That gave 27 games over the day.

Here are the results:

First Round: Battlelines (22)  
Went First & Won (WFW): 6
Went Second & Won (WSW): 3

Second Round: Overrun (31)
WFW: 3
WSW: 6

Third Round: Scorched Earth (12)
WFW: 5
WSW: 4

So overall for this event, statistically there was no evident bias in whether you went first or second.

I decided to isolate the outcomes with a winning record - the nine players who won 2 or more games.

Went First & Won: 9
Went First & Lost: 3

Went Second & Won: 11
Went Second & Lost: 4

Again, statistically - no difference.

So why do I think there is variation from the early results overseas?
  • Small sample size
  • Local meta factors (possibly)
  • Mission choice (possibly)
  • Terrain density
After reading the Goonhammer articles and terrain density (or lack thereof) being a possible cause, I ensured that the tables all had the number of items of terrain we played with in 8th, on the smaller 60"x 44" area for TLW. This meant that the tables had more cover (relatively) than we were used too. Coupled with the new terrain rules people could protect themselves from a first turn strike. Yes, you could flood the board going first but you couldn't necessarily flood the board AND alpha strike your opponent.

On this basis I think those that tried to flood the board had to weigh up the cost of a relatively unblooded opponent hitting back....there was a potential cost.

Keen to keep tracking the data. 

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