Friday, March 23, 2012

Army Performance at Equinox

One of the things I like to do after an event is to see how certain armies performed. When we had the mammoth events in Australia 2-3 years ago you used to have a strong dataset which tended to isolate the impact of player skill (more than with a smaller event).

For NZ this has always been fraught with difficulty as our events lack the size required to draw too many conclusions. Equinox over the weekend gave us 43 participants. Of that set nine armies were used by three of more participants. Average Battle Points were 60/120 - given 20 points on offer for each game.

Here is how the different armies performed (average battle points):

Four armies scored above the average, and five below. What is instantly recognisable is the "poor" performance of the Vampire Counts and the Orcs & Goblins who both scored a long way from the average.

Now there can be all sorts of reasons for this. I'm sure Jack could tell me whether the results were statistically significant - I suspect the small dataset says no. However, these things could be down to luck, the draw, player skill or that the Vampires and O&G were disadvantaged by the comp system.

What is interesting is that normally a new book gets a boost at its first few events as opponents have less familiarity with the book. I know at Equinox Basil Moskovis was in the Top 4 at the end of Day One but had a horror Day Two.

The O&G result just looks awful.

I expected Empire to do well but the Bret (3 players) and Tomb Kings (4 players) results are more of a surprise. From the names I know that all three Bret players have experience with their armies - John Willenbruch winning the recent OTT. Two of the Tomb Kings finished in the Top 5 and both are in the top echelon of the rankings. What is particularly interesting is Tim Joss and Peter williamson took extemely different builds - this bodes well for TK longevity.


  1. Orc and Goblin armies tend to amplify the result of how badly or poorly you are rolling... the positive effects of spells like Foot of Gork and the artillery dice with Doom Diver if you keep rolling well are great, but the negative effects are sometimes worse...

    Doom diver blows up on a 1/2 on it's own misfire table, twice as likely than for any other army, plus no way to modify. Foot is great until you roll a 1 and your opponent gets to stomp you... no other magic law allows this if your 'big' spell (pit, dwellers, 13th etc) goes off, and compared to those spells, foot is very dice dependent.

    mushroom dice NG Shaman have to roll can end up stopping a spell and causing a wound (yet they were still counted against the PD limit at Equinox).

    Then there is animosity.... try loosing a magic phase turn 4 and see what that does to your army...

    TO's then comp the rare choices that balance this out, manglers, Pump wagons or the big units needed to survive the combats long enough to bring in some support.

    For a 'fluff' combat army, getting into combat early is not a great option for OnG. Sit back, pick off and weaken units until you can, hoping that you don't roll misfires or low rolls on your mangler...

    I am definitely considering retiring my OnG army after this year...

    On a positive note, I am happy to have scored well above the average for OnG on the weekend!

    1. As the current icon holder for OnG, I know where you are coming from, however I do disagree with some of your conclusions.
      Out of all the OnG builds I seen at Equinox, only one was competitive imo, and even then I thought is was not an optimal list. OnG introduces above average random elements into a build, but it also allows greater redundancy for when things do go wrong.
      And they will eventually.

  2. Hamish excuses for not coming down to the Horned Gobbo then
    2 Lobbers
    2 Doomies
    2 Manglers
    3 Pumps......and you've got 5 points spare

    Plus NG mushies are not power dice, or at least thats what my OG book (and the players pack) say.


    1. in discussions with she who must be obeyed... have to go to Wellington via palmy for work, if I can tie in with runefangthe tourney too then that will be great... tricky bit will be driving home to Tauranga on the sunday...


  3. Please keep thinking O&G are crapolla guys. It has always been the case that the less competative players go for the green guys and the more competative stay away, due to animosity and other random events. The army though is one of the most versitial, but getting your head around how to work the randomness can be tricky.
    It really comes down to the player using his O&G army well IMO.

  4. It's modern day wargaming these days and with a greater population of wargamers army performance is affected greatly by player ability and/or list design in regards also to the restrictions a tournament places.
    Had some time so thought I'd do a parallel stat analysis as well taking into account the past three tournaments OTT, Rung Fang & Equinox. It's after the results section of the Equinox post on my blog if you're interested.